2016-17 NBA Over Under Season Win Totals

When Las Vegas sets the win totals on the upcoming season they are based largely on last year’s standings.  That’s the base point, and then they make adjustments up and down if a franchise made significant moves or lost key players.  That means that if you study each roster you can find some value and possibly take home some money.

Last season our top NBA handicapper was Teddy Davis.  He finished at 212-141 (60.1%) with his $100 per game clients profiting over $6,000!  That’s impressive to say the least.  He’s ready to beat the NBA spreads again, and the only way to do that is to know the ins and outs of every squad.

So – I asked him for his top over under win total bets for 2016-17.  He generously agreed.  Included below are the three strong leans and seven bets that he is personally taking and why.

Top NBA Win Total Over Under Picks & Predictions

Cavs 56.5-  We all know Cleveland is coming off a great comeback down 3-1 to beat the Warriors in the NBA Finals.  This team will definitely have a hangover effect from that performance.  The motivation simply won’t be there through the first part of the schedule while others will be targeting them every chance they get.  The Cavs lineup is practically the same besides a couple changes.  They lost Dellavedova and Mozgov, but brought in Birdman and Dunleavy.  In 2015-16 the Cavs won 57 games and I see them struggling to achieve that mark again.  Another key thing here is that the Eastern Conference is a lot better than what people think.  The 8th seed last year won 44 games so the depth is there which will make the road a little bumpier along the way.  MY PICK: CAVS U56.5

Warriors 66.5-  The Warriors set the NBA record last year going 73-9.  They were on a mission to complete that task and I believe we will see the total opposite from them now.  With the huge addition of Durant the Warriors have one thing in mind and that is the NBA title (view Championship odds here).  They will be resting their key players often especially down the stretch as the record means nothing to them now.  The key for the Warriors will simply be the bench play.  They lost Bogut, Barnes, Speights, Rush, Barbosa and Ezeli.  Those guys were all contributors in a big way.  I see the Warriors more focused on the playoffs as opposed to the regular season this time around.  MY PICK: WARRIORS U66.5

Pacers 44.5-  This is my favorite win total!  The Indiana Pacers are quietly becoming one of the best Eastern Conference teams besides the Cavs.  They were extremely active this off season with the additions of Jeff Teague, Thaddeus Young and Al Jefferson.  They still have a super star in Paul George and great young talent they drafted last year in Myles Turner who I see breaking out.  In 2015-16, the Pacers won 45 games which is why this number caught me off guard.  If they win under 44 they simply won’t make the playoffs.  It’s clear from what I have mentioned that this squad is a Eastern Conference contender.  I’m going out on a limb and saying they will be the #2 seed.  MY PICK: PACERS O44.5

Heat 34.5-  The Heat had 48 wins last year, but have a lot of big changes that have taken place since then.  Dwayne Wade is obviously gone to Chicago and it doesn’t look like Chris Bosh can ever play again with his illness.  The Heat will struggle to score as they don’t have a go to guy anymore.  The depth is a huge concern for me as well bringing guys like Wayne Ellington, Tyler Johnson and Derrick Williams off the bench.  These guys will be nowhere near the playoff picture as I see them being the third worst Eastern Conference team.  MY PICK: HEAT U34.5

Suns 27.5-  The Suns will be my surprise Western Conference team.  The main key for them is being healthy.  They relied on a very young roster lead by rookie Devin Booker half the year.  Now they return Brandon Knight and Eric Bledsoe two underrated guards.  They brought back Dudley and Barbosa for quality depth.  They also had two lottery picks taking Dragan Bender and Marquese Chriss which they expect to contribute right away.  The Suns are coming off a 23 victory campaign, but are clearly a ton better than just 4 games.  MY PICK: SUNS O27.5

Bulls 38.5-  This total was the biggest surprise of any to me.  The Bulls only won 42 games and missed the playoffs.  I actually like this Bulls roster a lot more than last year as I felt Rose was a problem in the locker room.  Jimmy Butler is the future star and has a great compliment in Dwayne Wade now.  Chicago also added Rajon Rondo and Robin Lopez.  I like the addition of Lopez a lot being a lot younger than Gasol.  They have nice young pieces coming off the bench as well with Mirotic, McDermott and Grant.  This is also Hoiberg’s second go at it and he has a lot to prove himself.  No way I see them missing the playoffs.  MY PICK: BULLS O38.5

Grizzlies 42.5-  They literally limped into the playoffs battling a thousand injuries.  However, they still managed to win 42 games and that was going 1-9 their last 10 games.  I expect a bounce back from the Grizzlies as they have a veteran group in Gasol, Conley, Randolph, Allen and newly acquired Chandler Parsons.  They play defense as well as anyone and always go under everyone’s radar. MY PICK: GRIZZLIES O42.5

Free Leans & Betting Predictions

Jazz 48-  I really believe the Jazz are heading for big things.  I love the pieces they have put together with Hood, Hayward, Favors and Gobert.  They have made great additions with George Hill and Joe Johnson.  The Jazz have the 4th highest Western Conference total.  Clearly, Vegas is thinking a big turnaround just like I am with this team.  LEAN: JAZZ O48

Nuggets 37-  The Nuggets, like the Jazz is another team that are on their way up.  They won 33 games and battled key injuries for most of the season.  I like what I saw from rookie PG Mudiay averaging 12 PPG with 5.5 APG.  Their big men are underrated with Faried, Jokic and Arthur.  I thought they had the steal of the draft as well with Jamal Murray falling to them.  LEAN: NUGGETS O37

Mavericks 38.5-  Every year this Mavs team seems to have a little something left in the tank that I don’t see coming.  They won 42 games, but having an aging Dirk and Deron Williams is a big concern.  They did acquire Harrison Barnes which they will rely heavy on along with Wesley Matthews.  I’m questioning if the Mavs can make the playoffs again.  LEAN U38.5

COMPLETE LIST OF 2016-17 NBA WIN TOTAL ODDS