Matt Fargo’s NBA Handicapping Picks & ATS Predictions

This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our Friday Free Play. It has been a freefall for the Cardinals as they have gone 7-15 over their last 22 games after opening the season with a three-game sweep over the Twins but after what we have seen from Minnesota, that sweep is looking less impressive. St. Louis is coming off a 1-6 roadtrip and while it returns home where it has been much better at 8-4, the pitching that had been lights out during the recent homestand has regressed and mostly from the bullpen whose ERA is 8.31 over the last week plus which is worst in baseball. Matthew Liberatore has put up two straight quality starts after a poor start in Pittsburgh and is now laying his biggest number of the season through four starts. The Brewers blew a chance for a series split in San Francisco as a dropped fly ball in the eighth inning led to a Giants comeback win and Milwaukee is back down to .500 on the season, putting it three games behind the Cubs. They catch the Cardinals at a good time and at a good price as they send Chad Patrick to the hill who has looked good through his first four starts. He is coming off his first quality outing and overall he has a 1.33 ERA and 1.23 WHIP covering 21.1 innings. Play (955) Milwaukee Brewers

3-0 Thursday. 2-0 MLB with Winners on the +201 White Sox and +118 Rays. Friday MLB has THREE Winners as we go for the 3-0 SWEEP. NBA 11-5 run Fargo is back in action on Friday. Let's go for a huge end of the month.

This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play Sweeper. The Giants got away with one on Thursday as they benefitted from a dropped fly ball in the eighth inning and came away with the 6-5 win to improve to 17-9 on the season including 7-3 at home. We are going to continue to fade Justin Verlander when at all possible as he is clearly a sell high pitcher as his prices are still based on his past and not necessarily his current form. He has made five starts and has a 5.47 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over 24.2 innings and finally posted a quality outing. Injuries have limited him the last three seasons and last year was one of his worst as he posted a 5.48 ERA in 17 starts with Houston and he allowed 15 home runs in just 90.1 innings and has already four this season. he Rangers have cooled off after an 8-2 start as the offense has been a big disappointment currently sitting No. 24 or worse in the four major hitting categories but have that good matchup. Nathan Eovaldi has pitched well to start the season as he owns a rare complete game shutout against the Reds but followed that up with a struggle against the Cubs yet did bounce back again with a pair of good efforts against the Mariners and Dodgers. He possesses a 24.6% K:BB% and now has a 2.64 ERA and 0.75 WHIP through five starts to go along with a 2.62 xFIP. 10* (979) Texas Rangers

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play Sweeper. Kansas City has finally heated up with four straight wins and while three of those were against Colorado, winning is contagious and the Royals are getting a great number at home with an offense, which has been horrible this season, is producing better of late. Seth Lugo is back home following a pair of road starts that were not very good as he went 6.2 innings in each but allowed a total of seven runs including five home runs, four solo home runs to the Yankees alone. He has a 3.24 ERA in three home starts and most importantly, he has allowed just one home run in Kansas City. He faced Houston twice last season and was dominant with a pair of quality outings. Houston is coming off a home sweep over Toronto as the pitching was dominant with only two runs allowed and are back on the road where they are 4-5. Hayden Wesneski has been a solid addition to the Houston starting rotation as he has allowed three runs or less in all four of his starts but his ERA sits at 3.91 which is still good but not dominant. He has been prone to the long ball as he has allowed six home runs and that was an issue last season when he got back into the rotation in late June as he allowed five home runs in four starts to end his starting run with the Cubs. 10* (970) Kansas City Royals

This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play Sweeper. New York is coming off a 7-0 homestand with sweeps over the Cardinals and Phillies to improve to 12-1 at home, the only loss coming to Miami and Max Meyer. They are back on the road where they are 6-6 and this is the ideal sell high spot. Kodai Senga opened the season with a decent start against the Marlins and he has been lights out since then as he has not allowed a run over his last three starts, giving up 12 hits over 17.2 innings but what stands out not so positive is his 12:6 K:BB Ratio and his 14.9% K:BB% is not very good. He was crushed by injuries last season and showing potential but he is overpriced. Washington took two of three against Baltimore to improve to 7-5 at home and it deserves the underdog role here, not at this number with its own quality pitcher taking the hill. We have not used Jake Irvin this season but this looks to be the time to back him. He has a couple rough games against the Diamondbacks and Dodgers but has bounced back with a pair of quality starts and while they were against Colorado and Pittsburgh, they were on the road which shows resiliency. He has a 3.68 ERA and 1.08 WHIP while his xFIP of 3.71 is actually better than that of Senga as is his K:BB% of 17.1% in a superb buy low situation. 10* (954) Washington Nationals

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES LAKERS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. The Timberwolves attained their goal in Los Angeles by coming away with the series split and are back home where they are 25-16 and the line here is holding despite the majority of the money coming in on the Lakers. The Timberwolves finished the season strong with winning eight of the final nine regular season games prior to the split but this one is not ideal laying a possession. Minnesota really struggled in these fringe home games as it is 1-12 ATS when favored at home between 1.5 and 7 points. They won both regular season home meetings but LeBron James missed one of those games while he and Anthony Davis combined to score just 22 points on 8-30 shooting and this is a more dynamic Lakers teams since the Luka Doncic acquisition. The Lakers did just go 19-22 on the road this season but were 8-5 against the number when getting fewer than five points and all but two of those were very early in January and prior while going 2-0 ATS in the two games in March with the current roster. This is an ideal spot for the offense to rebound as aside from Doncic, Los Angeles shot just 40 percent from the floor in the first two games and Game Three playoff contests is where LeBron has shined in the pas, averaging over 27 ppg with the Lakers. 10* (557) Los Angeles Lakers